A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
