Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
